Analysis and Prioritization of Socio-Environmental Economic Drivers of Timber Smuggling: A Case Study of Western Mazandaran

Abstract

The present study aims to prioritize the factors influencing the occurrence of timber smuggling in western Mazandaran Province using two multi-criteria decision-making methods: the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and DEMATEL. The statistical population consists of managers and staff of the natural resources department of western Mazandaran. In this study, four main criteria, economic, legal, socio-environmental, and supervisory, were considered, and data were collected through a questionnaire administered to 15 experts. The findings obtained from both methods indicate that economic factors rank first, legal factors second, socio-environmental factors third, and supervisory factors fourth in terms of their influence on timber smuggling. Furthermore, among the sub-criteria, “high inflation,” “high unemployment rate,” and “increased timber import tariffs” (all belonging to the economic criteria group) received the highest scores.